Following a defeat for his Social Democratic Party in state elections in
Nordrhein-Westfalen, which ended 39 years of SPD control of the state, German
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has called for early federal
elections. This is a highly unusual move, to say the least, and raises
constitutional questions; it was last carried out by Helmut Kohl in 1982 by
getting his MPs to vote against him in a vote of no confidence and using that to
allow him to call for the elections ahead of schedule. The German supreme court
didn't look favorably at the move at the time. (Analysis.)
I don't think anyone can characterize this as anything short of a gamble on
Schroeder's part. A series SPD state governments have been defeated over recent
months and years, this most recent in a state they had controlled for close to
four decades, and the national government is lagging behind in the polls. The
economy isn't in the best of shape, with massive unemployment, which doesn't do
the Government any good. Indications are that Schroeder would lose the elections
he's calling for. SPD delegates quoted in the analysis didn't sound overly
optimistic.
Had he waited, though, would things have gotten worse for Schroeder? Does
calling the elections now give his coalition a better chance of victory than if
the elections had been held on schedule?
Calling for them now has had one advantage: it caught the opposition off guard
as much as his own party. The Christian Democratic Union, Germany's leading
conservative party, and the Christian Social Union, their Bavarian partners,
haven't resolved their differences over who should challenge Schroeder for the
chancellorship. In the last election, Bavarian Minister-President Edmund Stoiber
was the CDU/CSU candidate, and he lost. Stoiber has given signs that he'd like
to try again, which the CDU isn't happy about. The CDU at large would rather run
their leader in the Bundestag, Angela Merkel, against Schroeder. Stoiber can't
become Chancellor without the CDU behind him, and the CDU can't risk alienating
the CSU (they're allied, but they're different parties). Merkel and Stoiber
differ politically, as well; their expressed opinions prior to the invasion of
Iraq stand out in my mind, but perhaps someone who pays attention to German
politics could better illustrate them.
Anyway, they thought they still had time to resolve their differences and decide
on common plan. Now they have to resolve them more quickly than they had
planned. This could spell trouble as they scramble to put together a plan for
this election.
Conservatism does seem to experience a strong upsurge in Europe, not just
Germany. Schroeder is indeed taking a big risk, and I'm not sure if this gamble
will pay off. Personally, I don't myself see an early election, but then again,
you never know. Your point about the unresolved differences in the Opposition is
very relevant, though I do think they can mount a sizable opposition to an early
election in order to further weaken Schroeder's position before the
election.
Just my not-so-much-into-German-politics view of things.
Following a defeat for his Social Democratic Party in state elections in Nordrhein-Westfalen, which ended 39 years of SPD control of the state, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has called for early federal elections. This is a highly unusual move, to say the least, and raises constitutional questions; it was last carried out by Helmut Kohl in 1982 by getting his MPs to vote against him in a vote of no confidence and using that to allow him to call for the elections ahead of schedule. The German supreme court didn't look favorably at the move at the time. (Analysis.)
I don't think anyone can characterize this as anything short of a gamble on Schroeder's part. A series SPD state governments have been defeated over recent months and years, this most recent in a state they had controlled for close to four decades, and the national government is lagging behind in the polls. The economy isn't in the best of shape, with massive unemployment, which doesn't do the Government any good. Indications are that Schroeder would lose the elections he's calling for. SPD delegates quoted in the analysis didn't sound overly optimistic.
Had he waited, though, would things have gotten worse for Schroeder? Does calling the elections now give his coalition a better chance of victory than if the elections had been held on schedule?
Calling for them now has had one advantage: it caught the opposition off guard as much as his own party. The Christian Democratic Union, Germany's leading conservative party, and the Christian Social Union, their Bavarian partners, haven't resolved their differences over who should challenge Schroeder for the chancellorship. In the last election, Bavarian Minister-President Edmund Stoiber was the CDU/CSU candidate, and he lost. Stoiber has given signs that he'd like to try again, which the CDU isn't happy about. The CDU at large would rather run their leader in the Bundestag, Angela Merkel, against Schroeder. Stoiber can't become Chancellor without the CDU behind him, and the CDU can't risk alienating the CSU (they're allied, but they're different parties). Merkel and Stoiber differ politically, as well; their expressed opinions prior to the invasion of Iraq stand out in my mind, but perhaps someone who pays attention to German politics could better illustrate them.
Anyway, they thought they still had time to resolve their differences and decide on common plan. Now they have to resolve them more quickly than they had planned. This could spell trouble as they scramble to put together a plan for this election.
So, opinions? Comments? Anybody actually care?
Conservatism does seem to experience a strong upsurge in Europe, not just Germany. Schroeder is indeed taking a big risk, and I'm not sure if this gamble will pay off. Personally, I don't myself see an early election, but then again, you never know. Your point about the unresolved differences in the Opposition is very relevant, though I do think they can mount a sizable opposition to an early election in order to further weaken Schroeder's position before the election.
Just my not-so-much-into-German-politics view of things.
This is great. I have been hoping for an upwards turn for Germany for years. Being rid of the SPD control is a great step in the right direction.